PROGNOSTIC POTENTIAL OF HISTORY

Abstract

The paper considers the importance of history for the understanding of the future, the determination of forecasting methods even taking into account the insufficiently objective and true historical information. The author points out seven key positions concerning the future, including the positions of academics-historians, and says that the past experience learning is not enough, and the modern complex systems management is impossible without the advanced information perception, without the predicting regulating actions, as well as that for the effective management and safety future ensuring it is necessary “to see” far.